Adem Yavuz Arslan*
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s longest-serving leader and one of the most consequential figures in the country’s modern history, has mastered the art of political messaging. On podiums at home and abroad, he consistently invokes themes of brotherhood, unity and regional peace. To international audiences, he presents Turkey as a stabilizing force in a volatile region. Yet behind the carefully crafted rhetoric lies a government increasingly defined by repression, strategic unpredictability and authoritarian consolidation.
The divergence between Erdoğan’s language and the lived reality of his rule is becoming too stark to ignore. While his speeches promise reconciliation and reform, his domestic and foreign policies reveal a trajectory toward confrontation — at home and abroad.
A perpetual state of political war
In recent months Erdoğan has intensified a political crackdown against the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), led by Özgür Özel. After a contentious internal party election in 2023 brought Özel to power, Turkish prosecutors — widely seen as acting in alignment with the executive — filed a lawsuit seeking to nullify the CHP congress that elected him. Pro-government media now suggest that the entire leadership structure of Turkey’s largest opposition party may be deemed illegitimate.
This legal maneuvering coincides with broader efforts to suppress dissent. Ekrem İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of İstanbul and Erdoğan’s most prominent political rival, has already been convicted on dubious charges and faces the possibility of being barred from office. Other opposition-run municipalities are under investigation or have seen their elected mayors detained. In Turkey’s current political climate, winning at the ballot box is no longer a guarantee of holding office.
Simultaneously, Erdoğan appears to be engaging in quiet talks with the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, hinting at a possible thaw in relations after years of harsh repression. But only months ago, the same administration pushed to dissolve the party and replaced dozens of its elected mayors with state-appointed trustees. These contradictory signals suggest a tactical — not principled — approach: criminalize, co-opt, or neutralize opposition depending on the moment’s political calculus.
Rhetoric of diplomacy, reality of militarism
Erdoğan’s foreign policy follows a similar pattern of contradiction. He often speaks of Turkey as a mediator and force for peace, particularly in conflicts such as Ukraine-Russia or Israel-Palestine. Yet in practice, Ankara has pursued a highly militarized regional posture: launching cross-border operations in Syria and Iraq, maintaining troops in Libya, escalating tensions in the eastern Mediterranean and aggressively promoting its defense industry — especially combat drones — as a tool of regional influence.
These actions stand in stark contrast to Erdoğan’s diplomatic overtures. For instance, while calling for de-escalation with Greece, he simultaneously authorizes military exercises near disputed islands. While advocating dialogue in the Caucasus, Turkish drones continue to shift power dynamics in favor of Azerbaijan. What Erdoğan presents as peace-building abroad often amounts to power projection.
Preparing for protests, not dialogue
The gap between rhetoric and reality is perhaps most concerning when it comes to Erdoğan’s internal security policy. Amid growing public frustration over inflation, youth unemployment and political repression, the government has quietly made extraordinary investments in riot control gear.
According to procurement records, the interior ministry has recently purchased over 270,000 units of tear gas and pepper spray, along with tens of thousands of gas masks for law enforcement. Such stockpiling is not merely routine; it signals a government preparing for sustained unrest.
These acquisitions come amid widespread concern that Erdoğan may be anticipating large-scale demonstrations similar to the 2013 Gezi Park protests or the post-coup purges of 2016. As he tightens control over opposition parties and judicial institutions, Erdoğan also appears to be arming his state apparatus against the public.
A system built on contradiction
Turkey under Erdoğan is no longer governed by predictable institutional norms but by personalized rule and selective enforcement. The language of democracy — pluralism, justice, reconciliation — remains in the public narrative. But in practice, these ideals are hollowed out by authoritarianism: Opposition leaders face jail, mayors are removed by decree and courts function as tools of political engineering.
International observers should not take Erdoğan’s peace rhetoric at face value. In today’s Turkey words are often strategic diversions, not reflections of policy.
If Erdoğa truly seeks peace — whether with Kurdish citizens, political opponents or neighboring states — he must begin by demilitarizing his domestic approach to politics and restoring democratic legitimacy to the country’s institutions. Until then the phrase, “Erdoğan says peace, but his hand signals war,” will remain a concise and chilling summary of Turkey’s political reality.
*Adem Yavuz Arslan is a journalist with over two decades of experience in political reporting, investigative journalism and international conflict coverage. His work has focused on Turkey’s political landscape, including detailed reporting on the 2016 coup attempt and its aftermath, as well as broader issues related to media freedom and human rights. He has reported from conflict zones such as Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq, and has conducted in-depth research on high-profile cases, including the assassination of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Arslan is the author of four books and has received journalism awards for his investigative work. Currently living in exile in Washington, D.C., he continues his journalism through digital media platforms, including his YouTube channel, Turkish Minute, TR724 and X.